Exit poll shows Green wave set to wash over Ireland

Published by Niall Sargent on

May 25th, 2019

A Green wave looks set to wash over Ireland in both European and local elections, according to an official exit poll taken yesterday evening.

If the predictions of the RED C poll of over 3,000 voters hold firm then Councillor Ciaran Cuffe looks set to top the poll in Dublin for the European Elections for almost a quarter of the vote.

This would be a major departure from previous polls that also placed his party colleagues Grace O’Sullivan and Saoirse McHugh well out of contention in the South and Midlands-North-West races.

Both, however, are in contention for a seat in their constituencies according to the exit poll results even when the four per cent margin of error is accounted for.

The Green Party also looks set to be the big winners in the local elections, with the poll carried out for RTÉ and TG4 suggesting that the party could take in nine per cent of the vote.

That would equal a significant swell in support from the 1.6 per cent support that the party received five years ago that brought home just 12 seats. The party has over 80 candidates this time around.

Grace O’Sullivan at Environmental Pillar hustings Photo: Niall Sargent

Overall poll results

In Dublin, the exit poll places Cllr Cuffe on 23 per cent, followed by Fine Gael’s Frances Fitzgerald (14 per cent), Fianna Fáil’s Barry Andrews (12 per cent), and another candidate with strong green positions Independents4Change Clare Daly (12 per cent).

Sinn Féin’s sitting MEP – and trained ecologist – Lynn Boylan (10 per cent) and the Social Democrats Gary Gannon (6 per cent) are also in contention for the third and fourth seats.

In the South, Fine Gael’s Sean Kelly is expected to top the poll (16 per cent) and retain his seat, as is Sinn Féin’s Liadh Ni Riada (13 per cent). Fianna Fáil’s Billy Kelleher is also on 13 per cent, followed by Grace O’Sullivan on 12 per cent.

Another sitting Fine Gael MEP looks set to top the poll in the Midlands North West, with Mairead McGuinness predicted to bring home 23 per cent of the vote, followed by Sinn Féin’s Matt Carthy on 15 per cent.

The Greens Saoirse McHugh then comes in at 12 per cent, closely followed by Independent MEP Luke Ming Flanagan and Fine Gael’s Maria Walsh, both on 10 per cent.

Saoirse McHugh at Environmental Pillar hustings Photo: Niall Sargent

European wave

Exit polls from the Netherlands also suggest a big bump in the European elections for the Dutch Green Party GroenLinks, with estimates giving the party over 11 per cent of the vote.

The party’s lead candidate Bas Eickhout said that the Dutch people have given a “ringing endorsement” for a European future that is “both Green and progressive”.

“Now it’s up to the rest of Europe to show up to the polls and vote for Europe, and against climate change,” he added.

The Greens were one of the big winners in the English local elections earlier this month, making a net gain of 185 seats across the country.

European Green parties made historic gains in elections held last October, with substantial gains in the Luxembourg national election, German state elections in Bavaria and Hesse, and the Belgian local elections.

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Niall Sargent

Niall is the Editor of The Green News. He is a multimedia journalist, with an MA in Investigative Journalism from City University, London